Thermal coal oversupply escalated in H1 2025. In July, the National Energy Administration launched overproduction inspections, dampening the increase potential in coal production in H2. Due to weak demand in the Chinese market, imports fell sharply in H1, but are recovering in H2, yet less likely to overtake last year's high. The growth in thermal coal demand has narrowed as strong power generation by new energy sources further displaces demand for thermal power. In H1 2025, thermal coal prices dropped to a multi-year low and coal mines' losses worsened. In H2, the overproduction inspection policy and coal miners' consciousness of reducing production to maintain prices bolster thermal coal prices to rebound.

How will the overproduction inspections move forward in 2026? Will the import volume rebound? How much growth potential is left for thermal coal demand? With coal market ushering in a new cycle, how will coal prices change? These questions need our thorough study.

Sxcoal is producing 2025 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2026 Outlook, to review and interpret important policies affecting coal market in 2025, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2026 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc.

The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China's thermal coal industry.

The outline of the report is as follows:

1. China Macro-economy Review and Outlook

1.1 China's macro economy achieves good results in 2025

1.2 Macro-economy outlook for 2026

1.3 Impact on the coal industry

2. Coal Industry Policies in 2025 and Developing Direction in 2026

2.1 Overproduction inspections restricting H2 coal output

2.2 Sino-US tariff frictions greatly stirring market sentiment

2.3 Impact of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

2.4 Forecast of coal industry policy in 2026

3. China Thermal Coal Demand in 2025 and Forecast in 2026

3.1 Total thermal coal demand in 2025 and forecast in 2026

3.2 Power industry

3.2.1 Strong new energy power generation significantly squeezing the growth in thermal power demand in 2025

3.2.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the power industry in 2026

3.3 Iron and steel industry

3.3.1 Industry profit margins improving in 2025 following the introduction of "anti-involution competition"

3.3.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the iron and steel industry in 2026

3.4 Building materials industry

3.4.1 Real estate industry still in adjustment in 2025, market confidence weak

3.4.2 Forecast of coal consumption in building materials industry in 2026

3.5 Chemical industry

3.5.1 New capacity commissioning substantially boosting coal demand in 2025

3.5.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the chemical industry in 2026

3.6 Heating industry

3.6.1 Demand expansion in the heating industry slowing down in 2025

3.6.2 Forecast of coal consumption in heating industry in 2026

4. China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis in 2025 and Forecast in 2026

4.1 Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast

4.1.1 Thermal coal capacity as of end-2025: With coal supply becoming abundant, new capacity commissioning decelerates

4.1.2 2026 capacity forecast

4.2 Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast

4.2.1 Overproduction inspections dampening production enthusiasm of coal mines

4.2.2 Thermal coal supply forecast for 2026

4.3 Thermal coal inventory analysis in 2025 and forecast in 2026

4.3.1 Inventory maintaining high in producing areas

4.3.2 Inventory fluctuating violently at transfer ports

4.3.3 Inventory stable at downstream power plants

4.3.4 Forecast of inventory trends in each segment in 2026

5. China Thermal Coal Import and Export Analysis in 2025 and Forecast in 2026

5.1 China's thermal coal imports

5.1.1 China's coal imports diminishing YoY in 2025

5.1.2 Import forecast for 2026

5.2 China's thermal coal exports

5.2.1 Export volume in 2025

5.2.2 Export forecast for 2026

6. China Thermal Coal Price Review in 2025 and Forecast in 2026

6.1 Thermal coal supply maintaining loose in H1 2025 but tightening in H2

6.2  China's thermal coal prices slipping continuously in H1 2025 while rebounding in H2

6.2.1 Thermal coal prices in production areas ever fell close to coal miners' production costs, prices dropped in H1 2025 and rebounding in H2 at port market

6.2.2 Imported coal's price advantage narrowed in H1 2025 but gradually expanding in H2

6.3 Thermal coal price forecast for 2026

6.3.1 Analysis of price influencing factors

6.3.2 Thermal coal price forecast by month for 2026